How do patients with atrial fibrillation do when not treated with anticoagulants?

Clinical guidelines and everyday medical wisdom all recommend oral anticoagulation (OAC) during the term of patients with atrial fibrillation who are determined to be obliged an increased risk of stroke according to widely used put to hazard indicator tools. Usually the CHA2DS2-VASc jeopardize assessment tool is used and for   patients by a risk score of greater  than  or alike 2 OAC is generally recommended.European and Canadian and U.S.  guidelines differ  in regard to recommendations towards risk score of 1. For hazard categories 0 and 1 there are none randomized clinical trials demonstrating the net clinical benefit of OAC . Those recommendations are driven truly observational trials and  expert option seems to alternate geographically.

 According to a 2016 division by Overvad et al :. “current guidelines discrepancies also reflect the fact that the horizontal surface of stroke risk among men with a score of 1 and women with a score of 2 is forward the borderline of where the pack together of anticoagulation treatment shifts from beneficial to injurious.”( ref 2)
In simple terms-it is a obstruct call. 

 The clinical upshot is the trade off between OAC abasement in ischemic stroke risk and the hazard of serious bleeding complications the worse of which is intracranial hemorrhage. Importantly and possibly ironically the higher the CHA2DS2 debt , the higher the risk of major hemorrhage. Analysis (ref 1)  of extremely 44 thousand in the Military Health System patients through non-valvular atrial fibrillation over a 2.5 year duration treated with rivaroxaban demonstrated a powerful relationship between the risk score and the danger of major bleeding.So the patients at the highest put to hazard of stroke are  the same the million who have the highest risk of major hemorrhage.,especially those with the violent vascular disease components of the put in peril score score.The data indicated that while the risk of hemorrhage increases with the risk score the stroke put in peril increases more so it is generally believed that there is net clinical confer a favor on even at the highest hemorrhage expose to danger levels.

Hess et al published a study focused up~ the body data from a outcomes registry towards patients with atrial fibrillation in concern to determine if patients with afib were substance treated according to  accepted guidelines.(American Journal of Medicine 2016 , Nov 22).See in the present life for link to abstract.

There were 9555 patients with afib and 1846 of those were not actuality treated with OAC even though they had a CHA2DS2-Vasc note greater than 2.

Interestingly the pat risk in those not treated compared through those who were treated was not statistically significantly elevated.. The adjusted HR was 1.18 with a 95% Confidence interval of 0.91–1.54.

It is many times stated that risk of stroke in afib patients is increased ~ dint of. a factor of 3- 5 (based attached Framingham data) and that OAC may grow less that risk by 60% or greater degree.Yet in this large data base OAC did not appear to be to bring about that degree of good turn. However, absence of OAC was associated through a statistically significant increase in jeopardy of death. ( HR 1..22 (1.05–1.41).

So in what condition do patients do  with atrial fibrillation  not treated  with OAC ? Based on this observational premises- better than you might expect. On the other artificer if we look at older facts from a randomized clinical trial published in 1991 ( SPAF criterion) the stroke risk per year because of the placebo arm was 6.3% against the warfarin  arm which was 2.3% and surprisingly the aspirin  bough was 3.6%.Later studies never confirmed the value of aspirin  in stroke prevention in afib but the SPAF verse conform with the broad brush comments that the put to hazard of stroke is about  three to five periods and the risk reduction from OAC may have ~ing in the 40-60% range. The BAFTA study not barely failed to show the value of aspirin in thump reduction in afib patients but demonstrated that in older patient s ( over 75 years of time of life) aspirin caused a similar risk of intracranial bleeding as warfarin.

So the question literary works why did the patients without usage do so well in Hess’s data or maybe the real life usage of afib with OAC is a great quantity less impressive than it  is in randomized clinical trials or haply there are so many potential biases in observational tumid data exercises  that solid “take home” messages are unaccommodating to find and/or rely on..

And things get even murkier or it may be more clear when Dr. H. Kamel  discusses challenges to the general that the risk of stroke in afib is in fact  solely debt to   thrombi in the left atrium and proposes  that things are a great deal of more complicated including the notion that at in the smallest degree sometimes a stroke can cause some atrial thrombus.  Certainly it is well known that misfortune can precede the onset of afib.He and coauthors agitate a new model for stroke and afib in which both afib and emboli are downstream  force of abnormal atria substrate (an atrial myopathy).This fashion might explain why stroke  risk is not eliminated by rhythm control strategies and why pat can predate afib and generally the trivial temporal relationship that exist between afib assault and stroke and why some reports cheat not show a dose response consanguinity between afib duration and stroke(.However, other reports in the same state as the TRENDS data do show  draught response relationship .)

Drs Akar and Marieb flow similar comments and say in portion “…AF may simply be a marker of underlying conditions that causes stroke as opposed to each active participant in the stroke  pathogenesis”

 In abrupt, they are saying  there   is judgment to believe there is much  in addition to it that simply that afib attempt thrombi in the left atrium and the clot embolizes  to the brain. be it so no one is saying that does not take place (” Atrial Fibrillation and Thrombogenesis:Innocent spectator or guilty accomplice”, JACEEP 2015, 2015;1(13) p 218.


1.Peacock,WF et al CHA2DS2-VASc Scores and Major Bleeding in Patients with Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Who are Receiving Rivaroxaban.Annals of Emergency Medicine, published online, accessed  12/4/16

2. Overvad TF et al. “Treatment thresholds according to stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation :observations in c~tinuance the CHA2DS2-VASC Score” Euro Heart Journal-Cardiovascular pharmacology Published without ceasing line August 2016

“Truth is a great quantity too complicated to allow anything no more than approximations” John Von Neumann

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